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Westpac : McDermott Miller NZ Employment Confidence Survey
“Employment Confidence in New Zealand has
fallen for the fourth quarter in a row”, announced Richard
Miller, Managing Director of Strategy Planning Consultancy
McDermott Miller. “The Westpac: McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Index
for New Zealand
in June 2012 stands at 96.2, down 2.6 points from March 2012. This is 9.9 points below its peak optimism of
106.1 in June 2011, and the third most pessimistic level since the beginning of
the series in June 2004”, he observed.
“Public sector employees remain much more
pessimistic than private sector employees. The Public Sector Employment
Confidence Index fell a further 3.8 points to 89.7,” Richard
Miller noted. “This is
the lowest since public sector confidence was first measured in March 2006.
Most public sector employees think jobs are hard to get (a net 69%), many think
jobs will be even scarcer in the year ahead (net 24%), only a net 23% expect an
improvement in future earnings, and a net 4% think jobs will be less secure.”
“In contrast, private sector employees remain
slightly optimistic at 100.5, but their confidence is down 1.1 points, to the
lowest index level recorded since June 2009,” Richard
Miller said. “Fewer private than public sector employees
think jobs are hard to get (net 55%), and private sector employees are less
pessimistic than their public sector counterparts about job opportunities in
the year ahead (a net 5% expect jobs to be harder to get). Private sector employees are also more
positive about future earnings (a net 30% expect an improvement) and personal
job security (a net 7% expect jobs to be more secure).”
“The divergence between public and private
sector employment confidence reflects different perceptions of the job
market. Public sector employees are
caught in an ongoing process of public sector restructuring and job losses; job
security is shaken within their sector while opportunities outside are few and
far between. Private sector employees in
contrast felt the employment losses and constraints of recession earlier and
are sitting tight waiting for the economic recovery,” observed Richard Miller.
“The sentiment that both public and private sector
employees share is anxiety over international economic conditions. Until this situation changes, employment
confidence in New Zealand
is likely to remain low,” concluded Richard Miller.
04 471 8501
Index is based on a survey of a representative sample of 1570 New Zealand
households interviewed during 1-10 June 2012.
It is made up of five component questions: (1) whether people feel that
jobs are plentiful or hard to get now; (2) what job opportunities will be like
in a year's time; (3) whether they are earning more or less now compared to a
year ago; (4) what their earnings will be like in a year's time; and (5) how
secure they feel in their present job. Questions 1 to 5 are used in the
Employment Confidence Index, while questions 1 and 3 are used to calculate a
Current Employment Conditions Index and questions 2, 4 and 5 are used to
calculate an Employment Expectations Index.
Index is intended to provide an indication of the level of job security amongst
NZ workers and their wage expectations, and hence an insight into their
willingness to spend. Over time, it is possible the Index may become a leading
indicator for employment growth.
The Westpac: McDermott Miller Consumer
Confidence Survey and Index is owned by McDermott Miller Limited. Westpac :
McDermott Miller should be acknowledged as the source when citing the Index,
just as Westpac-Melbourne Institute should be acknowledged when citing the
Australian Index of Consumer Sentiment. Graphs supplied may be reproduced by
the news media provided the Westpac: McDermott Miller logo remains inset.