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September
2015
The Westpac : McDermott
Miller NZ Consumer Confidence Index for September 2015 is 106.0
WESTPAC : McDERMOTT MILLER
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY
18 September
2015
Excerpt for Joint Westpac:
McDermott Miller
MEDIA RELEASE
”New Zealand Consumers
remain optimistic, but confidence is the lowest it has been since September 2012” announced Richard Miller, Managing Director in
Strategy and Economics Consultancy, McDermott Miller. “This continues the
slippage from the
Index peak of 121.7 in March 2014,” he observed. “The Westpac: McDermott Miller New Zealand
Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for the September Quarter fell to 106, down from 113.0 in
June.”
“Confidence in short term prospects for the New Zealand
economy has sagged, with a net 15% now expecting bad times over the coming year,
down from a net 5% expecting good times in March. Consumers put their pessimism
down to ‘low dairy prices’ and ‘ineffective government economic policy’ (29%)”,
noted Richard Miller. “Reasons for
pessimism diverged somewhat between metropolitan and rural consumers expecting
bad times” he observed. “The former
expecting bad economic times because of ‘ineffective government economic
policy’ (29%) followed by ‘low dairy prices’ (23%). Unsurprisingly, a net 25% of rural consumers
expect bad times, with some 39% blaming ‘low dairy prices’ and 30% ‘ineffective
government policy’.”
“Perhaps more
worrying for retailers, is the fall in net percentage of consumers thinking now
is a good time to buy major household items (from 29% in June to 20% in
September). The main reason given by
some 26% is ‘they have no money to spend’. When this factor is put alongside
negative sentiment over New Zealand’s short term economic prospects, a slowing
down in growth of retail sales is likely in the months ahead”, Richard Miller suggested.
“Confidence amongst
consumers employed in both Private and Public Sectors fell again in the September Quarter (Private Sector
employees down 8.7 CCI points to 108.3 points and Public Sector employees down
9.9 points to 100.9 )”, reported Richard Miller,
“There has been a sharp increase in expectation of bad economic times in the
next twelve months, with a net 16% of Private Sector Employees now expecting
bad times (compared to a net 5.4% expecting good times in June), while a net
28% of Public Sector employees continue to expect bad times (up from 1% in
June). Private Sector and Public Sector
consumers give different reasons for their pessimism about the short-term
economic outlook. Private Sector employees cite ‘low dairy prices’ (40%); while
some 26% of Public Sector employees agree, but more are inclined to blame
‘ineffective government economic policies’ (31%, compared to 18% of Private
Sector Employees).” he recorded.
“Generally, the
September quarter Westpac - McDermott Miller New Zealand Consumer Confidence
Survey shows consumers remain optimistic”, concluded Richard
Miller, “but the significant September quarter drop in the
Consumer Confidence Index reflects growing doubts about current economic policy
settings among consumers and indicates hesitancy in consumer spending.”
ENDS
18 September 2015
Richard Miller, Managing
Director
McDermott
Miller
04 471 8501
027 451 0158
Email: strategies@mcdermottmiller.co.nz
Website: www.mcdermottmiller.co..nz
Index Background
The Consumer
Confidence Index is based on a survey of a representative sample of 1550 New Zealand households interviewed during 1-11 September 2015.
It analyses answers to five standard questions on personal financial
circumstances, expectations for the economy and attitude to buying substantial
household items. Index scores measure consumer confidence in the economy, with
a score of greater than 100 showing more optimism than pessimism and vice versa
for a score below 100 (for more information see Survey Specifications).
Acknowledgement
The Westpac : McDermott Miller Consumer
Confidence Survey and Index is owned by McDermott Miller Limited. Westpac :
McDermott Miller should be acknowledged as the source when citing the Index,
just as Westpac-Melbourne Institute should be acknowledged when citing the
Australian Index of Consumer Sentiment. Graphs supplied may be reproduced by
the news media provided the Westpac : McDermott Miller logo remains inset.
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